Northern Lights forecast

It depends on three things lining up at once: a dark sky (which Iceland has this time of year), an active enough geomagnetic index (Kp), and clear-enough cloud cover - and all three change hour to hour. Rather than a fixed yes/no, the live gauge at the top of this page combines tonight's real-time Kp, cloud cover, and moon brightness into a single chance for right now.

Iceland sits far enough north that even a low Kp index (2–3) can produce visible aurora on a clear, dark night. Kp 4+ is a genuinely active display; Kp 5 and above (a geomagnetic storm, G1 or higher) can put the aurora directly overhead and visible even with some light cloud or moonlight. Cloud cover matters as much as Kp - a clear sky at Kp 2 often beats an overcast sky at Kp 5.

Roughly late August through mid-April, whenever the sky gets properly dark at night. From around late May to early August, Iceland's high latitude means there's no real astronomical darkness (the "midnight sun" period) - the aurora may be active overhead, but it's not visible against the bright sky.

Anywhere away from Reykjavík's light pollution with a clear, dark sky and an open view north. The "where to chase tonight" list on this page ranks Iceland's main regions live by aurora probability and cloud cover for tonight specifically.

Yes - the aurora happens above the clouds, so a fully overcast sky blocks it completely. Partial or scattered cloud can still allow a view through gaps. This is why the forecast on this page weighs cloud cover alongside the Kp index, not Kp alone.